PT Rifan Financindo Berjangka – Gold Awaits Its Signal From Here!
Gold prices rose to $4,077 at the start of the Asian session on Monday (November 24th), supported by growing expectations of a Fed interest rate cut next month. Dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams were the main driver of this positive sentiment.
Williams emphasized that the Fed could still cut interest rates in the near future without disrupting its inflation target. The market now estimates the probability of a December rate cut has jumped to around 74%, from just 40% last week. Lower interest rate expectations typically benefit gold because they lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
However, not all Fed officials are on the same page. Lorie Logan and Susan Collins remain hawkish and believe interest rates should be kept unchanged for longer. These conflicting positions have made the market cautious ahead of key US data releases.
The main focus now turns to US PPI and retail sales data due on Tuesday. Consensus estimates PPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and retail sales increased 0.4%. Hotter-than-expected data could dampen expectations of a rate cut.
If inflation rises, the dollar could potentially strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold prices. For now, XAU/USD remains stable in positive territory as the market awaits further clues from data and comments from Fed officials. (Asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
Rate Cut Uncertainty, US Data Pressure Gold
Gold prices weakened in the US session on Friday, with spot prices holding slightly above $4,060 per troy ounce and Comex futures also closing lower, putting gold on track for a weekly decline. The strengthening US dollar and rising government bond yields have caused the precious metal to lose some of its appeal as a non-yielding asset, so buying interest in the New York session is likely limited.
Fundamentally, pressure comes from still-solid US employment data. The September nonfarm payrolls report showed an increase of around 119,000 jobs, well above the 50,000 expected, while the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high. This combination has led market participants to believe that the Fed will not be too aggressive in cutting interest rates at its December meeting, temporarily dampening expectations of monetary easing, which typically support gold.
Meanwhile, physical gold demand in several Asian markets has also been sluggish, limiting the potential for a price rebound. Some investors are choosing to wait for further clarity regarding the Fed’s policy direction and the release of subsequent inflation data before increasing exposure to this safe-haven asset. As long as the dollar remains strong and bond yields remain high, gold prices in the US session have the potential to move within a consolidation range with a downward bias. PT Rifan Financindo Berjangka.
Source : NewsMaker